nalysis of Forest Cover Change in the Southwest Ethiopia: Key Drivers, Impacts, and Conservation Implications

Abstract

Forest cover changes in southwest Ethiopia have signifcant social and environmental implications. Tis study explored the primary drivers and efects of forest cover changes from 1986 to 2019 in the region. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining socioeconomic data, geospatial data, and both global and locally adapted ecosystem services value (ESV) coefcients. Te fndings indicated a signifcant decline in forest cover attributed to its conversion to human-modifed land types, with approximately 87.3 percent of respondents acknowledging this reduction in the study area. Te intricate factors driving forest cover changes include agricultural expansion, population growth, land grabbing, fuelwood collection, and illegal logging, highlighting the necessity for a multifaceted approach to tackle these challenges. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that various sociodemographic factors signifcantly infuenced (p < 0.05) respondents’ perceptions regarding the drivers of forest cover change. Te ESV over three timeframes indicated a decrease from around US$226.75 million to US$172.81 million, equating to a total loss of approximately 23.79%. Te ESV of shrublands fell by 46.35%, wetlands by 32.63%, dense forests by 23.77%, and open forests by 17.29% during the evaluation period. In contrast, cropland rose by 38.06% and agroforestry by 20.03%. Signifcant ecosystem services, like water supply and disturbance regulation, faced reductions of over 30%. Correlation analysis reveals that forest conservation strategies are linked to the drivers of deforestation, suggesting that integrated approaches can mitigate deforestation and promote sustainable resource management. Positive attitudes toward aforestation, enhanced enforcement, community forest management, and improved agricultural practices highlight opportunities for collaborative conservation eforts. Achieving sustainable conservation requires increased community engagement and governance, along with compre- hensive policies to address changes in forest cover and their impacts on ecosystem services.